CLN Weekly Politics

8/6/2009

2009-08-06T13:47:00.000-07:00

Welcome. The CLN has been on vacation for the past week. And yes, thanks for asking, we enjoyed it. Now to the latest political news:

Obama Approval:
Rasmussen Daily Tracking (8/6): Approval Index: -6 (32/38)
Ovearall: 49% Approve, 51% Disapprove.

These numbers represent a fairly stable showing...the more President Obama pushes big government healthcare, the more his popularity falls.

2009 Elections:

In New Jersey, the latest poll out by Daily Kos, a democratic polling firm, shows Republican Chris Christie leading Incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine by 8 points, 48-40 among likely voters. There has not been a poll out of New Jersey since January showing the democrat ahead. In a sign of desperation, Governor Corzine has resorted to bring former President George W. Bush up, and compare Christie to the president. The CLN will continue to update this race, but as of today this race is in the Safe Republican column.

In Virginia, most recent polls have showed Republican Bob McDonnell with a comfortable lead, with Survey USA showing him up 55-40 last week. The CLN feels McDonnell is currently leading by 8-10 points in this race. However, Democrat Creigh Deeds main concern is not getting enough Obama voters to come out in November for him. For example, in 2008 Democrats had about a six point party ID advantage in Virginia. Coupled with the president's falling popularity and the lack of interest of democrats, Republicans have a six point advantage today. McDonnell is averaging about 51% in most polls, while Deeds is around 40%. There is definitely room to grow for Deeds, but McDonnell is already polling over 50%, which is the epitome of why John McCain was unable to defeat Obama, because Obama was over 50% in most polls. McCain only could get his numbers up, but could not bring Obama's down. The CLN currently has this race in the Solid Republican category, but we will update weekly.

Healthcare:

President Obama has continued his aggressive push for Universal Healthcare in recent days. Obama however is apparently having a tough sell, as a Qunnipiac poll out this week shows only 39% approve of how the President is handling this issue. He has already failed to meet one goal, as he had hoped for the Senate to vote on this matter before summer recess, but that begins tomorrow. Healthcare reform is far from defeated, but with each passing day something doesn't get done, and the American People hear more about the government take-over of healthcare, the more support falls for the measure.

Sotomayor:

President Obama's pick for the highest court in the land, was confirmed easily as we anticipated at the CLN today, 68-31. Nine Republicans joined Democrats in voting to confirm her.

Until Next Week,

Stay Classy,

Keep an Open-Mind,

and be patriotic!

God Bless.

7/25/2009

2009-07-25T09:13:00.000-07:00

This week has been a very exciting week to say the least. President Obama has been strongly pushing for his healthcare reform, including a primetime press conference Wednesday Evening. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said that there will be no vote on the Healthcare bill before the August recess, a major deadline President Obama had wanted to meet. This week has also had an interesting week of polls. Let's take a look at some of the numbers.

President Obama Approval Index: -9 (7/25-Rasmussen);
Overall Approval: 49% Approve, 51% Disapprove (7/25-Rasmussen)

Now let's take a look at the CLN Poll of Polls, an average of the major polls taken between 7/18/2009 and 7/25/2009.

Approve: 55%
Disapprove:42%

Healthcare:

Healthcare Reform has taken a major hit in the last week, with support for the measure presented by President Obama and Democrats in Congress falling to new lows. Rasmussen came out with a survey early in the week showing that now just 44% of the American Public supports the reform, with 53% opposed. Fox also has numbers out with only 36% supporting the measure, and 47% opposed. Perhaps even more disturbing for Obama is only 24% strongly support the Reform, while 37% strongly oppose it. As of now, without the support of the American public, the odds of the current bill being passed are very slim, due to 2010 being an election year. The latest poll on the issure of Healthcare for President Obama is Fox with 43% approving of the President on the issue, while 45% disapprove. The CLN Poll of Polls on this issue for the week shows:

Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 46%

That wraps it up for this week. Stay tuned for another exciting week of Politics!

Joe Venable

7/16/2009

2009-07-16T12:57:00.000-07:00

Welcome! Thank you for visiting the CLN Weekly Blog for all of the top political news. We will include poll numbers, commentary, and political facts to help you stay informed!

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Approval:

Approval Index (number who strongly approve minus those who strongly disapprove): -8 (28/36)
Overall Approval: 51% Approve, 47% Disapprove

2009 Elections: New Jersey and Virginia
Latest Polls:
New Jersey: Christie (R) 45 Corzine* (D) 37 (Monmouth)--(7/9-7/14)--527 Likely Voters

Virginia: McDonnell (R) 44 Deeds (D) 41 (Rasmussen)--(7/14)--500 Likely Voters

*: Indicates Incumbent

Poll Links
New Jersey: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nj_christie_45_corzine_37_monm.php

Virginia: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/va_mcdonnell_44_deeds_41_rasmu.php

Commentary:
These Poll numbers indicate Republicans, as of now, have a good shot at gaining two new governor seats. New Jersey has not had a Republican elected statewide since 1997, and with an incumbent polling at 37% look out. Republicans have had their fair share of incumbents defeated, and know first hand when an incumbent is polling in the 30's in July of that election year, the odds of being re-elected are slim to none. President Obama, seeing these low numbers, is in the Garden State tonight to stump for Governor Corzine. Although, that same Monmouth poll showed that 69% would not be affected in their decision on who they are going to vote for if Obama campaigns for Corzine. In fact, 17% said Obama's presence would lower their chances of voting Democrat in November, while 13% said it would raise their chances. New Jersey is definitely not over, but Corzine had better get his act together, or it will be a big night for Republicans on November 3rd.

In Virginia, Republicans have consistently led in this race since February. The current governor, Tim Kaine, is not running for re-election. Virginia was won by President Obama last November, 53%-46%. But like in most states, the further the president's numbers drop, the more Republicans benefit. Keep your eye on Virginia, as it is a fairly good indicator on how 2010 will go.

Healthcare:
President Obama, as you probably know by now, is pushing for a major Healthcare overhaul in the US. Americans widely support a plan to let people have a choice of a public option or a private option by a wide 69%-26% margin in a new Gallup Poll. But when it comes to the current proposal by President Obama and Democrats in Congress, Americans are opposed 49%-46% according to a Rasmussen poll this week. Look for a major offensive by Obama and Democrats in the month to come, but just as strong of a response from Republicans as the Healthcare battle is rapidly heating up.

Sonia Sotomayor:
Sonia Sotomayor, President Obama's pick to be the next Supreme Court nominee, is likely to be confirmed by the vastly Democratic Senate. Polls show however, Americans are evenly divided on her confirmation. My guess is she will be confirmed in the near future by a vote of 70-30 or so.

That is all for this week. Check back with us every Thursday to get your latest dose of CLN Politics. Have a good one.

Joe Venable